CanSISE Reports

CanSISE Deliverable 1 Report (May 2016)
CanSISE Deliverable 1 Report Final.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 10.6 MB
Year 4 Annual Report (December 2016)
CanSISE Y4 Annual Report.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 337.6 KB


Project Year 5 (2017)

Published 2017

1.       Blackport, R., and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Coupled Climate System. J. Climate, 30, 2163–2185, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0257.1.


2.       Gagné, M.-È., J. C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, I. V. Polyakov, and G. M. Flato, 2017: Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the 20th Century. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL071941.

Submitted 2017

1.       Fyfe, J.C. & 10 co-authors. Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States. Submitted to Nature Comms. (2016).

2.       Gagne, M.-E., M.C. Kirchmeier-Young, N.P. Gillett & J.C. Fyfe. Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichon and Pinatubo. Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. (2016).


3.       Sospedra-Alfonso, R., and W. J. Merryfield, 2016: Influence of temperature and precipitation on historical and future snowpack variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the Second-Generation Canadian Earth System Model. Submitted to Journal of Climate, August 2016

Project Year 4 (2016)

Published 2016

1.      Bichet, A., P. Kushner, and L. Mudryk, 2016: Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice. J. Climate, 29, 9125–9139, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0032.1.


2.       Blackport, R., and P. J. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401–417, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.


3.       Dirkson, A., W. J. Merryfield, and A. Monahan, 2016: Impacts of sea ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0437.1. (Accessed December 6, 2016).


4.       Gervais, M., E. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and L. B. Tremblay, 2016: Arctic Air Masses in a Warming World. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0499.1.


5.       Islam, S. ul, S. J. Déry, and A. T. Werner, 2016: Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia. J. Hydrometeor., 18, 473–496, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0012.1.


6.       Kang, D. H., H. Gao, X. Shi, S. ul Islam, and S. J. Déry, 2016: Impacts of a Rapidly Declining Mountain Snowpack on Streamflow Timing in Canada’s Fraser River Basin. Scientific Reports, 6, 19299.


7.       Kirchmeirer-Young, M., F. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent. J. Climate, 30, 553–571, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1.


8.       Kumar, S., F. Zwiers, P. A. Dirmeyer, D. M. Lawrence, R. Shrestha, and A. T. Werner, 2016: Terrestrial contribution to the heterogeneity in hydrological changes under global warming, Water Resour. Res., 52, 3127–3142, doi:10.1002/2016WR018607.


9.       Kumar, S., J. L. Kinter III, Z. Pan, and J. Sheffiled, 2016: Twentieth century temperature trends in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CESM-LE climate simulations – spatial-temporal uncertainties, differences and their potential sources, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, accepted, doi: 10.1002/2015JD024382


10.   Laliberté, F., S. E. L. Howell, and P. J. Kushner, 2016: Regional variability of a projected sea ice-free Arctic during the summer months. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2015GL066855, doi:10.1002/2015GL066855.


11.   McCusker, K. E., J. C. Fyfe, and M. Sigmond, 2016: Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss. Nature Geosci, advance online publication.


12.   Najafi, M. R., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, 2016: Attribution of the spring snow cover extent decline in the Northern Hemisphere, Eurasia and North America to anthropogenic influence. Climatic Change, 1–16, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1632-2.


13.   Snauffer, A.M., A.J. Cannon, and W.W. Hsieh, 2016:  Comparison of gridded snow water equivalent products with in situ measurements in British Columbia, Canada, Journal of Hydrology, 541, 714-726, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.027


14.   Sigmond, M., M. C. Reader, G. M. Flato, W. J. Merryfield, and A. Tivy, 2016: Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12,457-12,465, doi:10.1002/2016GL071396.


15.   Sospedra-Alfonso, R., L. Mudryk, W. J. Merryfield, and C. Derksen, 2016: Representation of Snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Initialization. J. Hydrometeor, 17, 1467–1488, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-14-0223.1.

16.   Sospedra-Alfonso, R., W. J. Merryfield, and V. V. Kharin, 2016: Representation of Snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part II: Potential Predictability and Hindcast Skill. J. Hydrometeor., 17, 2511–2535, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0027.1.


17.   Thackeray, C.W., & Fletcher, C. G., 2016: Snow albedo feedback: Current knowledge, importance, outstanding issues and future directions. Progress in Physical Geography. doi:10.1177/0309133315620999


18.   Thackeray, C. W., C. G. Fletcher, L. R. Mudryk, and C. Derksen, 2016: Quantifying the uncertainty in historical and future simulations of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0341.1.


19.   Williams, J., Tremblay, B., Newton, R., and R. Allard, 2016: Dynamic Preconditioning of the Minimum September Sea-Ice Extent. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0515.1

Reports 2016

Kushner, P. J., and Coauthors, 2016: Assessment of Snow, Sea Ice, and Related Climate Processes in Canada’s Earth System Models and Climate Prediction Systems. University of Toronto,.

Project Year 3 (2015)

Published 2015

1.       Ambadan Thomas, J., A. A. Berg, and W. J. Merryfield, 2015: Influence of snow and soil moisture initialization on sub-seasonal predictability and forecast skill in boreal spring. Climate Dynamics, 1–17, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2821-9


2.       Bichet, A., P. J. Kushner, L. Mudryk, L. Terray, and J. C. Fyfe, 2015: Estimating the Anthropogenic Sea Surface Temperature Response Using Pattern Scaling. J. Climate, 28, 3751–3763, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00604.1

3.       Dirkson, A., W. J. Merryfield, and A. Monahan, 2015: Real-time estimation of Arctic sea ice thickness through maximum covariance analysis: Statistical sea ice thickness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4869–4877, doi:10.1002/2015GL063930


4.       Fletcher, C. G., C. W. Thackeray, and T. M. Burgers, 2015: Evaluating biases in simulated snow albedo feedback in two generations of climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 12–26, doi:10.1002/2014JD022546

5.       Gagné, M.-È., N. P. Gillett, and J. C. Fyfe, 2015: Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2015GL065504, doi:10.1002/2015GL065504.


6.       Hernández-Henríquez, M. A., S. J. Déry, and C. Derksen, 2015: Polar amplification and elevation-dependence in trends of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, 1971–2014. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 44010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044010


7.       Howell, S. E. L., C. Derksen, L. Pizzolato, and M. Brady, 2015: Multiyear ice replenishment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1997–2013. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, 1623–1637, doi:10.1002/2015JC010696



8.       Kumar, S., R. P. Allan, F. Zwiers, D. M. Lawrence, and P. A. Dirmeyer, 2015: Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,867-10,875, doi:10.1002/2015GL066858.


9.       Mudryk, L. R., C. Derksen, P. J. Kushner, and R. Brown, 2015: Characterization of Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent Datasets, 1981–2010. J. Climate, 28, 8037–8051, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0229.1.


10.   Najafi, M. R., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, 2015: Attribution of Arctic temperature change to greenhouse-gas and aerosol influences. Nature Clim. Change, 5, 246–249, doi:10.1038/nclimate2524.



11.   Sospedra-Alfonso, R., J. R. Melton, and W. J. Merryfield, 2015a: Effects of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability in the Central Rocky Mountains as a function of elevation: Climate driven alpine snowpack. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4429–4438, doi:10.1002/2015GL063898.


Project Year 2 (2014)

Published 2014

1.    Déry, S., H. Knudsvig, M. Hernández-Henríquez, and D. Coxson, 2014: Net Snowpack Accumulation and Ablation Characteristics in the Inland Temperate Rainforest of the Upper Fraser River Basin, Canada. Hydrology, 1, 1–19, doi:10.3390/hydrology1010001. (Partially supported by CanSISE)


2.    Gervais, M., J. R. Gyakum, E. Atallah, L. B. Tremblay, and R. B. Neale, 2014a: How Well Are the Distribution and Extreme Values of Daily Precipitation over North America Represented in the Community Climate System Model? A Comparison to Reanalysis, Satellite, and Gridded Station Data. Journal of Climate, 27, 5219–5239, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00320.1. (Directly supported by CanSISE)


3.    Gervais, M., L. B. Tremblay, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah, 2014b: Representing Extremes in a Daily Gridded Precipitation Analysis over the United States: Impacts of Station Density, Resolution, and Gridding Methods. Journal of Climate, 27, 5201–5218, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00319.1. (Directly supported by CanSISE)


4.    Kang, D. H., X. Shi, H. Gao, and S. J. Déry, 2014: On the Changing Contribution of Snow to the Hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15, 1344–1365, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0120.1. (Directly supported by CanSISE)


5.    Mudryk, L. R., P. J. Kushner, and C. Derksen, 2014: Interpreting observed northern hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations. Climate Dynamics, 43, 345–359, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1954-y. (Related to CanSISE)


6.    Shrestha, R. R., M. A. Schnorbus, A. T. Werner, and F. W. Zwiers, 2013: Evaluating Hydroclimatic Change Signals from Statistically and Dynamically Downscaled GCMs and Hydrologic Models. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 844–860, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-030.1. (Related to CanSISE)


7.    Thackeray, C. W., C. G. Fletcher, and C. Derksen, 2014: The influence of canopy snow parameterizations on snow albedo feedback in boreal forest regions: Boreal forest snow albedo feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 9810–9821, doi:10.1002/2014JD021858. (Directly supported by CanSISE)


8.    Wan, H., X. Zhang, F. Zwiers, and S.-K. Min, 2015: Attributing northern high-latitude precipitation change over the period 1966–2005 to human influence. Climate Dynamics, 45, 1713–1726, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2423-y. (Directly supported by CanSISE)

Reports 2014

Pittana, M., and C. Haas, 2014: Comparing Sea Ice Mass Balance Buoy Snow Depth Measurements with Reanalysis and Climate Model Data. Internal summer project summary report, York University. (Theme A, directly supported by CanSISE)


Original Proposal and Annual Reports

CanSISE Original Research Network Proposal
CanSISE Proposal 2014-12-05.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 690.0 KB
Year 1 Annual Report (December 2013)
CanSISE Y1 Annual Report 2013-12-01.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 8.7 MB
Year 2 Annual Report (December 2014)
CanSISE Y2 Annual Report 2014-12-02.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 213.2 KB
Year 3 Annual Report (December 2015)
CanSISE Y3 Annual Report.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 302.8 KB